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Using a subset of observed network links, high-order link prediction (HOLP) infers missing hyperedges, that is links connecting three or more nodes. HOLP emerges in several applications, but existing approaches have not dealt with the associated predictor’s performance. To overcome this limitation, the present contribution develops a Bayesian approach and the relevant predictive distributions that quantify model uncertainty. Gaussian processes model the dependence of each node to the remaining nodes. These nonparametric models yield predictive distributions, which are fused across nodes by means of a pseudo-likelihood based criterion. Performance is quantified by proper measures of dispersion, which are associated with the predictive distributions. Tests on benchmark datasets demonstrate the benefits of the novel approach. 

Higher-order link prediction (HOLP) seeks missing links capturing dependencies among three or more network nodes. Predicting high-order links (HOLs) can for instance reveal hyperlinks in the structure of drug substance and metabolic networks. Existing methods either make restrictive assumptions regarding the emergence of HOLs, or, they rely on reduced dimensionality models of limited expressiveness. To overcome these limitations, the HOLP approach developed here leverages distribution similarities across embeddings as captured by a learnable probability metric. The intuition underpinning the novel approach is that sets of nodes whose embeddings are less similar in distribution, are less likely to be connected by a HOL. Specifically, nonlinear dimensionality reduction is effected through a Gaussian process latent variable model that yields nodal embeddings, and also learns a data-driven similarity function (kernel). This kernel forms the core of a maximum mean discrepancy probability metric. Tests on benchmark datasets illustrate the potential of the proposed approach.